Monitoring Chris Paul’s Potential Destinations

Throughout this summer (and likely the last few years), calls to the New Orleans Hornets regarding the availability of Chris Paul have rung off the hook.  In fact, sources reported that discussions heated up to the point where prior to the NBA draft, the Trail Blazers and Hornets had thoroughly discussed the possibility of sending Paul to Portland in an exchange of various expiring contracts and young talents.  A second reported deal had Paul nearly ending up in New Jersey.  However, the one constant through all of this has been Paul’s stated preference to stay in New Orleans – provided that the team is committed to building a team capable of winning a championship around him.

Now, however, Paul’s stance appears to have changed.  On Wednesday, CBS Sports reported that Paul had provided the Hornets with a list of three teams – the Knicks, Magic, and Lakers – as trade destinations that he would prefer.  Thursday, on ESPN’s Chris Broussard challenged that report stating that Paul’s desired potential destinations include New York, Orlando, Portland, and Dallas.  Regardless of the teams, it appears Paul has made up his mind that the Hornet’s organization, amidst ownership turmoil, a new GM, and a new coach simply does not have the ability to become a contender in the upcoming years.  The Hornets have planned a meeting with Paul for this next Monday as an effort to convince him otherwise, but it appears that Paul’s trade demands are concrete.

It should be noted that Paul has very little leverage in his current situation.  Paul still has 2 years left on his contract, and thus the Hornets have no compelling reason to listen to his demands.  The Hornets should, and will, only trade Paul in the near term if the trade improves their future outlook 2-3 years down the line.  Doing so would require a trading partner that can offer significant cap relief (by taking on the contracts of Emeka Okafor, James Posey, or both), as well as young talent with small contracts.  You might wonder how trading Paul could ever improve the Hornet’s outlook 2 years from now, but it may be (and quite reasonably) assumed that Paul would simply leave the Hornets in two years if the team fails to trade him before he becomes a free agent.  With this in mind, let’s take a look at the four teams reportedly on Chris Paul’s wish list to see what they have to offer.

New York

ESPN has reported that the Knicks are at the top of Paul’s wish list, and reasonably so.  The team recently signed Amar’e Stoudemire, and looks to have a great deal of cap space next season to make a run at Carmelo Anthony.  A threesome of Paul, Anthony, and Stoudemire would make for quite a battle in the Eastern Conference Finals each year with Miami.  Further, New York has all the assets to make this trade happen through Eddy Curry’s expiring contract and the potential of Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Randolph.

Proposed Trade

New York trades: Eddy Curry, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, and Wilson Chandler

New Orleans trades: Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor

This is the type of trade that New Orleans would have to consider.  First, every player they take on is in the last year of the contract, and this allows them to get the monstrous Okafor contract ($11-12 million for 4 more years) off of their books.  Not only that, but the Hornet’s get the excellent young talents of Gallinari and Randolph, while also getting solid players in Azubuike and Wilson Chandler.

However, this trade creates a precarious situation for New York.  For all the talk of a trio of Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and Amar’e Stoudemire, the inclusion of Emeka Okafor’s contract in this deal makes it nearly impossible for them to sign Carmelo outright in the 2011 offseason.  This would be further complicated if New Orleans insists on James Posey ($6.5m for 2 seasons) being included in the deal.  Further, it leaves the cupboard quite bare in New York outside of Stoudemire and Paul, with no formidable starting small forward and no bench.  Is this a trade New York should consider?  I certainly think so.  While they may not become contenders immediately, future offseason acquisitions through the draft and free agency would make a foundation of Stoudemire and Paul a force to be reckoned with.

Portland

The Trailblazers are a team that has long been after Paul, and his trade demands present them an excellent opportunity to make their pitch.  They have the expiring contracts of Andre Miller ($7.3m) and Joel Pryzbilla ($7.4m), as well as enough young talent in Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez to create an interesting package for the Hornets.  A trio of Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldridge could wreak havoc in the western conference, especially if Greg Oden returns from his injury woes anywhere near his potential.

Proposed Trade

Portland Trades: Andre Miller, Joel Pryzbilla, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and Marcus Camby

New Orleans Trades: Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor, and James Posey

You should be quick to note the inclusion of Marcus Camby in this trade.  Camby recently re-upped with the Blazers for 2 years at nearly $12 million per year, and does not necessarily fit the mold of the salary dump New Orleans would be attempting in trading Okafor and Posey.  However, with this deal, the Hornets would save $4 million in the upcoming season (maybe more if Pryzbilla can’t return from injury and his contract is covered by insurance), $14.5 million in the 2011-2012 season after Miller and Pryzbilla’s contracts expire, and an additional $12 million in the season after Camby’s contract expires.  Marcus Camby is set to make the same amount of money as Emeka Okafor, but his contract is for half the number of years.

The inclusion of Nicolas Batum in this deal has to be appealing to the Hornets, as he is an excellent defensive player with an ever-improving offensive game compared to Tayshaun Prince.  However, it’s the inclusion of Rudy Fernandez where the deal becomes questionable.  Fernandez has publicly stated that he is unhappy on the Blazers, but has reportedly expressed interest in heading back to Spain.  The Hornets certainly are not looking for young talent that plans to leave upon the expiration of their contract, and thus they may insist on Jerryd Bayless being included in the deal.

If this is the case, the Blazers would have an interesting decision to make.  In trading Batum and Bayless together, the Blazers would essentially have no formidable starting small forward (they traded Martell Webster earlier this summer), no backup point guard, and an unhappy backup shooting guard in Rudy Fernandez.  Wesley Matthews would presumably slide into the starting lineup as an undersized small forward, creating vast matchup problems for the Blazers against the Heat, Celtics, Thunder, etc.  Thus, the Blazers certainly have the assets to entice the Hornets to trade Chris Paul, but in doing so they would be sacrificing a great deal of their depth that has been such an asset to them in the past two seasons.  Ultimately, however, a team must take risks to become a contender, and the prospect of getting Chris Paul is likely too great for the Blazers to pass up.

Orlando

Unfortunately for Orlando, they do not have a great deal of attractive pieces outside of Vince Carter’s gigantic $18m expiring contract.  Beyond that, you have to look at pieces such as Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat (a bad contract, but he certainly has potential), Brandon Bass, and Mickael Pietrus as potential chips in a deal with the Hornets.

Proposed Trade

Orlando Trades: Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat, 1^st round pick

New Orleans Trades: Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor, and James Posey

This trade seems highly unlikely from New Orleans standpoint.  While they do receive a good amount of cap relief from the expiring contract of Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson and Marcin Gortat are the only two young assets on Orlando that garner much interest and they each come at a relatively high price compared to the players that New York and Portland have to offer.  For the past two years, there has been much speculation around how good Gortat could be, but we can never know until he is out of Dwight Howard’s shadow.  Taking on his 4 year contract at approximately $7m per year would be a rather large risk for New Orleans if they are trying to cut salary.  Jameer Nelson is a nice player and past all-star, but arguments could be made that he is no better than Darren Collison, the apparent heir to the starting point guard spot in New Orleans should Chris Paul be traded.  Ultimately I find it hard to believe New Orleans would make such a trade from Orlando.

Dallas

Should the Mavericks be the team to land Chris Paul, the deal would most certainly be the purest form of a salary dump in NBA.  The Mavericks hold the expiring contracts of Caron Butler ($10.m), Tyson Chandler ($12.6m), and DeShawn Stevenson ($4.2m).  Their one solid young prospect is Roddy Beaubois, the young point guard from France.

Proposed Trade

Dallas Trades: Caron Butler, Tyson Chandler, DeShawn Stevenson, Roddy Beaubois, and picks

New Orleans Trades: Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor, and James Posey

(Note: This trade would have to take place September 13 or later because Dallas is over the cap and recently traded for Tyson Chandler)

This deal would save New Orleans approximately $4 million in the current season, and approximately $28 million in the 2011-2012 season.  However, the possibility of such a New Orleans trade with Dallas is questionable for various reasons.  First, a salary dump like this would be a complete slap in the face to all the New Orleans fans.  Not only do they lose Chris Paul, but they get very little in young talent back for it.  Further, the young talent that they do get back (Beaubois) plays the same position as young point guard Darren Collison, and thus adds very little to the New Orleans rotation.  Sure, the Hornets do get Caron Butler in the trade, and a team of Collison, Butler, David West, Chandler, and Marcus Thornton may win a few games (albeit miss the playoffs).  However, it’s certainly unlikely that Butler would return to the Hornets following next season.  Finally, in the event that Dallas does trade for Chris Paul, what happens to Jason Kidd?  By no means would this be a deterrent for Dallas to obtain Paul, but it certainly would add an interesting dynamic to their team with Kidd coming off the bench.

Ultimately, if Chris Paul is traded to one of the four aforementioned teams, they will have the chance to immediately become a contender who runs deep into the playoffs.  However, as previously mentioned, Chris Paul has little leverage, and the Hornets may decide to hold their cards until a date to be determined later.  It would certainly make sense for the Hornets to hold onto Paul throughout the upcoming season and trade Paul in the follow offseason, before he can leave the team as a free agent.  Right now, however, there are deals that the Hornets should strongly consider, should they recognize that they will not be a contender in the next two years.  There will likely be surprise teams in the discussion over the upcoming weeks (Denver anyone?) with just as enticing offers as the ones above.  It may be tough for Hornet’s fans to stomach, but that’s life as an NBA fan in tough economic times.

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